Trump's Tariffs | The University of Sunderland

Published on 3, April, 2025

Dr Derek Watson, Associate Professor in Cultural Management at the University of Sunderland, shares his thoughts on what US President Trump's new tariffs could mean for the global, national and regional economy.

"The Trump Show continues to embroil a culture of uncertainty and menace amongst global leaders. April 2nd was branded ‘Liberation Day’ where US President Donald Trump personally divulged to the world non-discriminatory tariffs; a so-called ‘eye for an eye’ tariff policy. This could in theory generate 100b dollars annually for the ‘Trump White House Machine’ to boost the American economy and reaffirm the American First sound bite.

Trump’s first term in office implemented tax cuts and tariffs to boost homegrown American jobs but resulted in a net loss in manufacturing jobs. In 2025 Trump is gambling on his season two approach in expanding US manufacturing, but with fewer imports to tax, this will inhibit raised revenue streams. Trump’s start-stop approach to tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico further fuels uncertainty in market and consumer confidence. Which may hinder manufacturing, revenue and employment.

Furthermore, Trump may also be culpable of introducing conflicting policies and regulations in the pursuit of national investment and in the acceleration of jobs, whilst at the same time shedding government employee roles and university educational grants.

The eye for an eye reciprocal tariff strategy does not hold water, as the Trump machine has targeted, in the main, countries that export more than they import from the US. World leaders are left contemplating whether to impose a knee-jerk reaction in launching retaliatory measures, whilst global stock markets are experiencing rollercoaster fluctuations.

The UK government's response was and still is not to react to the 10% export tariffs and 25% car import tariffs, but to negotiate a much-needed reduction in tariffs.

Whilst we are short in time, there is wiggle room to negotiate like offering the TECH Service sector reduced tax incentives, extinguishing the pre-Brexit EU 10% tariffs on US cars and easing US Agrifood access into the UK supply chain. But the reality is that there are no winners in trade wars and Trump’s actions could severely damage an already frail UK economy.

In 2024, the north-east exported £0.75bn to the US and previously considered the US as a high-growth market. Nationally the UK exports around £58bn to the US predominantly in the service sector.

However, the Government, the stock market and the business community realise that if no deal is reached 1000’s of jobs could be at stake, leading to increases in prices passed along supply chains, which will drive up inflation leading to higher interest rates. The tariff chain reaction will eat into regional and national business and consumer confidence resulting in a potential contraction of the economy and ultimately increased unemployment.

If the Government of the day are unable to win over the Trump machine, then the economic consequences could run well beyond April. It also begs the question, is it not time to question the over-reliance on global supply chains and pander after the Trump machine whose blinkered vision is America first?"

Dr Derek Watson is available as an expert for media interviews. Check out the University of Sunderland's other experts available for media interview here.